Navigating Economic Uncertainty Through Regional Collaboration
In times of economic uncertainty—with falling markets, evolving tariff policies, and an increasingly unstable labor force—regional collaboration and cross-sector dialogue are more important than ever.
This year’s event featured a keynote economic outlook from Dr. Jon Haveman, followed by a fireside chat with California State Controller Malia Cohen on the fiscal health of the state and implications for local communities.
We heard from local leaders across Santa Cruz, Monterey, and San Benito Counties, including county administrative officers and city managers, who shared regional updates and economic trends.
We explored the policies shaping the future of our workforce and education systems with voices from UC Santa Cruz, Cabrillo College, and the Santa Cruz County Office of Education.
Political strategist and author Mike Madrid joined us for a keynote address and fireside chat with Zach Friend, exploring his latest book The Latino Century and its timely reflections on cultural transformation, self-governance, and the evolving American identity.
We learned how initiatives like Regions Rise Together, Uplift Central Coast, and the Monterey Bay Tech Hub are fostering resilience and opportunity across the region—with insights from housing advocates, early childhood leaders, and workforce development experts.
This was more than just a conference—it was a call to action. Thank you for those who joined us and who are working towards a THRIVING Monterey Bay region.
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Tahra brings to MBEP strong skills in leadership, management, policy advocacy, and public affairs. She is experienced in diverse issue areas across multiple sectors including nonprofit management, business, and government. Her familiarity in leveraging strategic relationships, building cross-cultural and cross-sector coalitions, crafting public policy, and organizing multi-faith and grassroots communities helped her succeed and pass legislation for over a dozen policies. READ MORE...
Faris Sabbah has served as the Santa Cruz County Superintendent of Schools since 2019. He is an immigrant to this country, having grown up in Iraq and Ecuador, and has lived in Santa Cruz County for over 30 years. Over the past 25 years, he has served in a variety of positions in education at the site, district, and County Office of Education levels. He believes wholeheartedly that education is about serving the whole child and disrupting inequitable practices to uplift student voice. READ MORE...
Amidst bright spots in the regional economy — strong employment growth in high-value-added jobs in the manufacturing and information/technology sectors, and a favorable outlook for future employment growth — the murkiness is hard to ignore.
Uncertainty is the underlying word running through any economic discussion right now, said Jon Haveman, keynote speaker at Monterey Bay Economic Partnership’s 2025 Regional Economic Outlook, and economic projections are wildly dependent on some huge unknowns, particularly how federal tariff policies and immigration actions unfold in the coming months.
Speaking to a sold-out crowd of regional leaders, Haveman shared a bevy of numbers that would at any other time inspire optimism in the future: Across the Monterey Bay region, employment recovery is picking up pace, with significant growth in the manufacturing and information/tech sectors. Forecasts from the Department of Transportation and the Department of Finance predict respective employment and population gains for the region.
But Havemen tempered those optimistic forecasts with significant variables that could drastically impact the economy. Among those are an uptick in overall and child poverty rates, particularly in Monterey County, in recent years, outpacing both the state and national average. In a region with a huge foreign-born population, mass deportations and immigration policies could also strain the local economy.
Immigration issues are also economic issues: Havement pointed to 2019 data that sets the undocumented workforce in the Monterey Bay region at 15 percent, or about 83,000 unauthorized immigrants, but that number is likely significantly higher now. The threat of looming mass deportations could be devastating for the regional labor force, he said, and in particular to industries that rely heavily on low-skilled, low-wage labor.
The reality, said Haveman, is that low-skilled immigrants take the jobs that Americans don’t want, provide support for higher-skilled workers, and help create jobs that the native population does want, so widespread deportation of undocumented immigrants would be felt widely and deeply across the economy.
According to Haveman:
A slate of anti-growth government actions and policies, from federal spending cuts and layoffs to new tariffs, is roiling the economy, creating uncertainty, and chilling investments and expansion.
The likely impact, says Haveman: Rising prices, coupled with a drop in exports, foreign investment, manufacturing activity, and the job market.
“Nobody knows how to plan into uncertainty,” he said, ‘so a lot of companies will draw back, people will stop spending, and other countries will look to invest elsewhere if the U.S. is volatile.”
Tourism, says Haveman, has already seen the impact, with a 10 percent decline from March 2024.
While Haveman isn’t ready to predict a coming recession, if the current anti-growth, inflationary policies continue, “a slowdown in economic growth is pretty much inevitable.”
“There’s so much uncertainty, it’s very hard to predict what the future is bringing,” said Haveman. “The outlook is very murky.”
Jon Haveman is widely considered to be one of California’s leading experts on the economics of seaports, goods movement, and international trade policy. He is also an expert in regional economies and local economic development. Prior to joining the Marin Consulting, Dr. Haveman was the Chief Economist at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, a founding principal at Beacon Economics, and the Director of the Economy Program at the Public Policy Institute of California. He has been a Senior Economist with the President's Council of Economic Advisers and an Economist with the Federal Trade Commission, and he has held a faculty position in the Business School at Purdue University. Dr. Haveman holds a Ph.D. and Master of Science in Economics from The University of Michigan and a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the University of Wisconsin. READ MORE...
California State Controller Malia Cohen, the self-described “fiscal go-to person” for California’s checkbook, sat down with MBEP President & CEO Tahra Goraya for an in-depth conversation about the fiscal health of California during MBEP’s recent Regional Economic Outlook.
Cohen, fiscal agent for the world’s fourth-largest economy, oversees a $27.4 billion monthly payroll to approximately 658,000 current and former state employees, the issuance of state income tax checks and other disbursements, and management of the state’s unclaimed property fund. Her department alone oversees close to 1,500 employees across the state.
In her Fireside Chat, Cohen shared a snapshot of the state’s fiscal health as well as a glimpse into what concerns her and what keeps her up at night. Her non-partisan, clear-eyed assessment: “We’re not bad, but we’re not in a good place.”
The good news, said Cohen, is that the state's holds healthy reserves of more than $20 billion, ahead of initial budget projections for March. The primary driver of the state’s revenue strength is personal income tax, said Cohen, and property taxes revenues continue to grow.
The bad news, she said, is that California is facing a multi-billion-dollar deficit over the next five years that the legislature will have to address, including $20 billion pandemic-related federal unemployment insurance debt and $40 billion in federal disaster relief for its recent wildfires. “We have a considerable amount of debt that we are responsible to pay the federal government.”
Tariff wars, shifts in the labor market, and volatile market fluctuations are causes for concern.
Federal actions — closing the Department of Education, the overhaul of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, stepped-up immigration enforcement — will have significant economic impacts on the state and the Monterey Bay region that Cohen described as “alarming and concerning": the loss of research dollars to institutions, constraints on labor availability, which could particularly be felt in Monterey County’s ag sector.
California, home to three of the nation’s largest seaports and the top importer of goods from China, is already feeling disruption from the tariff war, said Cohen. Imports are down, which impacts not just the Teamsters that drive the trucks and the dockworkers, but also the surrounding restaurants and the small businesses that employ local workers and support those industries.
Among the strategies Cohen advised for building economic resilience in the Monterey Bay region and across the state:
Many of those strategies are already being embraced in the Monterey Bay region, said Goraya, where initiatives such as Regions Rise Together, Uplift Central Coast, and the Monterey Tech Hub are advancing health care and hospitality/tourism industries, while building robust pathways for agtech, advanced air mobility and precision manufacturing, and advanced business services.
As chief fiscal officer of the world’s fifth-largest economy, Controller Cohen’s primary responsibility is to account for and protect the state’s financial resources. Controller Cohen also independently audits government agencies that spend state funds, safeguards many types of property until claimed by the rightful owners, and administers the payroll system for state government employees and California State University employees. READ MORE...
Tahra brings to MBEP strong skills in leadership, management, policy advocacy, and public affairs. She is experienced in diverse issue areas across multiple sectors including nonprofit management, business, and government. Her familiarity in leveraging strategic relationships, building cross-cultural and cross-sector coalitions, crafting public policy, and organizing multi-faith and grassroots communities helped her succeed and pass legislation for over a dozen policies. READ MORE...
Sonia M. De La Rosa stepped into the CAO position in January 2023 following a long-standing career with the County of Fresno, where her hard work brought forward many improvements to services which have enhanced the lives of the residents there. She has extensive experience working with challenging issues such as homelessness, supporting victims of crime and law enforcement. The first Latina County of Monterey CAO, De La Rosa was raised in Monterey County and has maintained her roots in the community. READ MORE.
Angela Curro represents District 4 on the San Benito County Board of Directors, serving residents in South County, southeast Hollister, Tres Pinos, Ridgemark and Paicines. Curro’s long career in local government includes stints with the elections departments in two counties (Santa Clara and San Francisco) before she became a project engineer, working on Gilroy Gardens and affordable housing projects.
In 1992, Mr. Palacios moved to the city of Watsonville, taking on the role of assistant finance officer before being promoted to City Manager, a role he served in for almost 20 years. During that time, Mr. Palacios supervised all city departments and oversaw a profound transformation in Watsonville, helping modernize their economy in the face of challenges from NAFTA and other global economic forces. As City Manager of Watsonville, he helped implement...READ MORE.
Lavera Alexander is an experienced strategist and facilitator focused on agile performance and transformative impact within the nonprofit sector. Her extensive background in cross-sector collaboration includes successful projects with the Department of Education, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Los Angeles Unified School District, the Royal Shakespeare Company, the National Institutes of Health, the National Endowment for the Arts, and the Newsom Administration. READ MORE.
Dr. Matt Wetstein has been Superintendent/President of Cabrillo College since February 2018. Prior to working at Cabrillo, Matt served for 6 years as the Assistant Superintendent/Vice President of Instruction and Planning at San Joaquin Delta College in Stockton, CA. Matt started his career in the California Community Colleges as a Political Science Instructor at San Joaquin Delta College in 1996. He holds a BA from the University of St. Francis in Illinois, and a Masters and Ph.D. in Political Science from Northern Illinois University. READ MORE.
Cynthia K. Larive was confirmed as the eleventh Chancellor of University of California Santa Cruz by the UC Board of Regents on May 16, 2019. She began her tenure on July 1, 2019.A common thread throughout Larive’s career has been her commitment to student success, inclusion and equity. She has led programs for undergraduate research and curricular innovation and has written over two dozen articles on active learning, mentoring and experiential learning. Larive has also been active in encouraging the participation and success of women and others who have been underrepresented in STEM fields, including service as co-PI of an institutional NSF Advance grant. READ MORE.
Faris Sabbah has served as the Santa Cruz County Superintendent of Schools since 2019. He is an immigrant to this country, having grown up in Iraq and Ecuador, and has lived in Santa Cruz County for over 30 years. Over the past 25 years, he has served in a variety of positions in education at the site, district, and County Office of Education levels. He believes wholeheartedly that education is about serving the whole child and disrupting inequitable practices to uplift student voice. READ MORE.
Deanna thrives on solving policy problems and making connections in Sacramento. With her infectious enthusiasm and sharp insight, her primary mission is to propel our clients to success by seamlessly blending preparation with opportunity. Her reputation for tireless research and relationship-building makes her an invaluable asset as Vice President of Majority Advisors.With eight years of experience in California politics, she has helped shape laws and build strong relationships in areas like property insurance, state parks, student loans, campaign finance, and housing development. READ MORE...
In his keynote address at MBEP’s Regional Economic Outlook, veteran political strategist Mike Madrid leaned in to data behind tectonic upheavals in the changing voting patterns — and the seismic changes to the political parties themselves — in both California and the nation as a whole.
An expert on Latino politics and the founder of the Lincoln Project, Madrid offered a detailed analysis of the factors that have fueled the rise of populism, the radical transformations of both the Democratic and Republican parties, and the socio-economic trends that have shaped California politics and the direction of the Latino vote over the past three decades.
Key points from his talk:
Mike Madrid is a nationally recognized political consultant with an expertise on Latino voting trends and voter behavior. Madrid has been a pioneer in Latino communications and outreach strategies in state, local, and national political campaigns. A graduate of Georgetown University, he served as the press secretary for the California Assembly Republican leader, as the political director for the California Republican Party, and as senior adviser to both Democrats and Republicans. READ MORE ABOUT MIKE.
Zach Friend is a nationally recognized expert in government affairs, communications strategy, and public policy, with a career spanning the highest levels of government and corporate advising. He has served in the White House, the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House of Representatives, and spent over a decade as an elected official in California.A former presidential campaign spokesperson, Zach has advised Fortune 500 companies, startups, and global organizations on crisis management, narrative development, and public affairs strategy. READ MORE...
Elissa Benson serves as Assistant County Administrative Officer for the County of Santa Cruz. In her role, she assists the County Administrative Officer in all aspects of administration of county government and the support and management of 25 departments, 2400 staff and an annual budget of $1.2 billion across all funds. READ MORE...
Matt Huffaker is the City Manager for the City of Santa Cruz, assuming the role in
January 2022, bringing with him five years of experience as the City Manager for the
City of Watsonville and over 20 years of public sector experience. With a passion for
public service, he is dedicated to finding innovative ways to serve the community and has a proven track record of achieving fiscal sustainability and fostering a connected workplace culture. His leadership values and established regional partnerships make him well-equipped to advance important initiatives in Santa Cruz. Matt has lived in Santa Cruz County since 2015 with his wife, Jocelyn, and three children. READ MORE.
René Mendez has over 30 years of State and local government experience. Prior to his appointment as City Manager of Salinas in May 2024, he served as City Manager of Watsonville for two years and Gonzales for 17 years.
René holds a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Economics from California State University, Stanislaus, and a Master of Arts Degree in Public Policy from Duke University. READ MORE.
Dr. Chris Benner is the Dorothy E. Everett Chair in Global Information and Social Entrepreneurship, and a Professor of Environmental Studies and Sociology at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He currently directs the Everett Program for Technology and Social Change and the Institute for Social Transformation. His research examines the relationships between technological change, regional development, and the structure of economic opportunity, focusing on regional labor markets and the transformation of work and employment. READ MORE.
Sonja Koehler is a convenor, facilitator and sensemaker. With a lifetime of international experience, decades of volunteer and professional organizing, degrees in Public Administration and Microbiology, and a Zen Buddhist practice, she is adept at seeing the whole and the parts and how its all connected. As Director of the Bright Beginnings Early Childhood Development Initiative based in Monterey County, Sonja is advancing cross-sector solutions to the child care shortage, and fostering a transformation of the holistic systems that support young children and families. She firmly believes that when we invest equitably to create communities of equality, everyone will thrive.
Visit Cesar's profile on LINKEDIN
With over 23 years of experience in Affordable Housing and Community Development, Matt Huerta advises and supports affordable housing and community development initiatives aimed at creating self-sufficiency. Areas of focus are program development, affordable housing development, organizational management improvement, and human capital development through leadership coaching and collaboration. READ MORE.
Mariam is the Deputy Director of Administration & Organizational Effectiveness at Youth Alliance, and joins the Regions Rise Together Collaborative as one of its newest partners. She currently sits on the Housing & Economic Empowerment Committee of the Regional Black Leadership Roundtable. She has more than two decades of experience working in the financial services, IT, non-profit, civil service, and higher education sectors. Her doctoral research work was on the impact of the Bretton Woods institutions' economic reform policies on Nigeria's economy. Mariam is a California transplant who loves its warm weather and beautiful coastlines. In her spare time, she loves to tie dye, a hobby she picked up during the pandemic lockdown.
With over 23 years of experience in Affordable Housing and Community Development, Matt Huerta advises and supports affordable housing and community development initiatives aimed at creating self-sufficiency. Areas of focus are program development, affordable housing development, organizational management improvement, and human capital development through leadership coaching and collaboration. READ MORE.
Maure is driven by a passion for human rights and a commitment to promoting equity for underrepresented and underserved populations. With a Master of International Affairs from UC San Diego, specializing in International Development and Nonprofit Management, she possesses a deep understanding of the complexities inherent in fostering inclusive and sustainable growth and prosperity, and is equipped with the knowledge necessary to drive lasting change. READ MORE.
Tahra brings to MBEP strong skills in leadership, management, policy advocacy, and public affairs. She is experienced in diverse issue areas across multiple sectors including nonprofit management, business, and government. Her familiarity in leveraging strategic relationships, building cross-cultural and cross-sector coalitions, crafting public policy, and organizing multi-faith and grassroots communities helped her succeed and pass legislation for over a dozen policies. READ MORE...
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We need your support to make our events a successful regional conference. More than ever, we are counting on you to ensure that MBEP has the capacity and resources to continue our important work in the foundational areas of housing, economic and workforce development, broadband access, and policy advocacy. Your sponsorship makes it possible for us to hold our annual convenings to share, collaborate, and partner across our tri-county region with diverse stakeholders in industry, government, and community while remaining focused on our triple bottom line of equity, economic health, and environment.
Sponsorship helps to not only host these regional convenings but to also support MBEP’s operations year around. I hope we can count on you! Please Jessica Gilden at jgilden@mbep.biz for more information.
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Funding 500 new affordable homes.
Resulting in 14 + new policies that are improving housing affordability
To recommend water policies that are increasing housing production
Aiming to educate about new laws, and strengthen policies and practices in Monterey County.
Resulting in 2,029 new homes
Resulting in 2,200 + new beds
We respectfully acknowledge that the land on which Marina, California, is located is the traditional and unceded territory of the Ohlone/Costanoan-Esselen Nation. We honor and thank the past, present, and future generations of the Ohlone/Costanoan-Esselen people for their stewardship of this land. We express our deep appreciation for their enduring connection to this place and commit to respecting and valuing their cultural heritage. As we enjoy the natural beauty and resources of this region, we strive to be mindful stewards of the land and to support the ongoing efforts of Indigenous communities.
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